1. Savage, Ian (1999). Aviation deregulation and safety in the United States: The evidence
after twenty years. In Marc Gaudry and Robert Mayes (editors) Taking Stock of Air
Liberalization (Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers) in honor of the
25th anniversary of the Centre de Researche sur les
Transport, Universite de Montreal, and the 60th anniversary of
Transport Canada.
Fatality rates for travel on jet airlines have continued
their long-run decline since deregulation. However, accident
rates which fell significantly in the 1960s and 1970s have
remained constant since 1980 primarily because the technology of
aviation safety has not changed significantly. The exception is
in the commuter aviation sector where changes in safety regulation
in 1978, and the substitution of turboprop for piston-engine
aircraft, have produced a dramatic improvement in safety
performance.
Despite the improved fatality rates there are valid concerns
such as financial distress leading to skimping on safety
expenditures, new entrant airlines with poor safety records, the
substitution of turbo-prop aircraft for jets, poor government
oversight of airlines, and increasing congestion at major
airports. I estimate that deregulation has resulted in between 9
and 12 additional aviation fatalities each year. However, that
number pales into insignificance compared with the 200 to 300
lives saved each year because deregulation encouraged people out
of their cars and onto the airlines.
View the working paper version of this
paper, which was presented at the original conference in 1997 [21 pages, 95 kb PDF].
2. Bylow, Lance F. & Ian Savage (1991). The effect of airline deregulation on automobile
fatalities. Accident Analysis and Prevention 23(5):443-452.
This paper attempts to quantify the effects of airline deregulation in the United States on
intercity automobile travel and consequently on the number of highway fatalities. A demand
model is constructed for auto travel which includes variables representing the price and
availability of air service. A reduced form model of the airline market is then estimated.
Finding that deregulation has decreased airfares and increased flights, it is estimated that
auto travel has been reduced by 2.2% per year on average. Given assumptions on the
characteristics of drivers switching modes and the types of roads they drove on, the number
of automobile fatalities averted since 1978 is estimated to be in the range 200-300 per year.
Link to the paper on Science Direct.
3. Moses, Leon N. & Ian Savage (1989). The effect of airline pilot characteristics on
perceptions of job safety risks. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 2(4):335-351.
A large cross-sectional sample of commercial airline pilots in the United States were asked
for their perceptions of job safety hazards. Regression techniques were employed to investigate
the relationship between these perceptions and both the length of tenure of pilots, and their
specific employer within the industry. The latter is found to have a far more significant
impact on risk perception. No evidence was found for a "learning curve" of job risk with
respect to experience. Pilots' assessment of inadequacies in training and aircraft maintenance
are found to be significantly related to the financial health of their employer.
Link to the paper on SpringerLink. You can also view an earlier manuscript version [20 pages, 114 kb PDF].
4. Moses, Leon N. & Ian Savage (1990). Aviation deregulation and safety: theory and evidence.
Journal of Transport Economics and Policy 24(2):171-188.
There is a popular belief that the economic deregulation of the United States' airline industry
has led to a denigration of its safety performance. This paper describes the academic evidence
on the validity of this fear. The evidence is presented within a theoretical framework which
describes the potential linkages between economic conditions and the safety performance of
firms.
While accident data indicate that safety has not measurably declined, there are lessons from
the American experience for countries contemplating deregulation. The substantial expansion
in air travel post-deregulation has not been matched by equivalent changes in federal, state
and local governments' activities in overseeing safety, and providing additional
infrastructure, such as airports and air traffic control. Airport and airspace congestion
has been exacerbated by adherence to user fees that are not responsive to the true cost of
different types of traffic (jets versus small private aircraft) and peaking in demand.
View the published paper [19 pages, 2066 kb PDF].
5. 1987 Conference on Transportation Deregulation and Safety in Trucking and Aviation.
On June 23, 1987 the Transportation Center of Northwestern University convened a three-day
conference on the implications for safety of two pieces of legislation, the Airline
Deregulation Act of 1978 and the Motor Carrier Act of 1980. These Acts had the effect of
reducing the control of the federal government, and of carrier rate associations on the
conditions of competition in the two industries. In particular, the regulatory reforms
embodied in the two Acts allowed: greater freedom of entry into the two industries;
greater freedom of entry into, and of exit from, particular markets; and greater freedom
of individual rate making. The Acts significantly increased the influence of market forces
on the prices charged for air and truck service, and the profitability of individual firms.
Increased rate competition between motor carriers had direct effects on the rates charged
by railroads for the movement of high value goods, and indirect effects on all other tariffs.
The regulatory reform bills were passed because it was felt that increased competition would
lead to more efficient operations and lower rates in the two industries, while not compromising
safety, or seriously compromising quality of service.
The results of the conference were published in a book:
Moses, Leon N. & Ian Savage (editors) (1989). Transportation Safety in an Age of
Deregulation. (New York: Oxford University Press.)
This book should be available from your library or the publisher.
The conclusions of the conference are available in the summary report on the conference which
was included in the proceedings of the conference published by Northwestern
University's Transportation Center in 1988 [26 pages, 115 kb PDF].
I would be pleased to answer any detailed questions that you may
have on these papers, and welcome the opportunity to add what I can
to informed formed public debate of this issue. Please
send an e-mail including your name and postal service address to request a
package of the complete papers. I would also be interested in knowing your professional
connection with aviation safety issues.
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