Charles F. Manski

Curriculum Vitae


Short Biography


Some Autobiographical Reflections: Unlearning and Discovery


ET Interview



Public Statements on Science in the Federal Government


Policy Analysis in a Post-Truth World, VOX, December 24, 2016


Trump Administration’s Attacks on Science Are Taking a Grim Toll, with B. Santer and R. Weymann, The Mercury News, January 3, 2018


Speaking Science to Power, with B. Santer and R. Weymann, Scientific American, April 23, 2018


STATEMENT TO RESTORE SCIENCE-BASED POLICY IN GOVERNMENT, By Concerned Members of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, April 2018

Forthcoming Articles


Treatment Choice with Trial Data: Statistical Decision Theory Should Supplant Hypothesis Testing, The American Statistician


Trial Size for Near-Optimal Choice Between Surveillance and Aggressive Treatment: Reconsidering MSLT-II, with Aleksey Tetenov, The American Statistician



Working Papers


The Lure of Incredible Certitude


Minimax-Regret Sample Design in Anticipation of Missing Data, with Application to Panel Data, with Jeff Dominitz


Tail and Center Rounding of Probabilistic Expectations in the Health and Retirement Study, with Pamela Giustinelli and Francesca Molinari


The Quantile Performance of Statistical Treatment Rules Using Hypothesis Tests to Allocate a Population to Two Treatments, with Aleksey Tetenov



Links to Books


C. Manski, Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions, Harvard University Press, 2013


Link to video recording of public lecture on the book at the British Academy in March 2013, with discussion by Lord Gus O’Donnell


Link to video recording of Sargan Lecture to economists on themes of the book at the Royal Economic Society meeting in April 2013


Link to video recording of Cemmap Masterclass on themes of the book in March 2013  (six 90-minute lectures)


C. Manski, Identification for Prediction and Decision, Harvard University Press, 2007


C. Manski, Social Choice with Partial Knowledge of Treatment Response, Princeton University Press, 2005.


C. Manski, Partial Identification of Probability Distributions, Springer-Verlag, 2003


C. Manski, J. Pepper, and C. Petrie (editors), Informing America's Policy on Illegal Drugs: What We Don't Know Keeps Hurting Us, National Academy Press, 2001 (book can be read online)


B. Fischhoff and C. Manski (editors), Elicitation of Preferences, Kluwer, 2000


C. Manski, Identification Problems in the Social Sciences, Harvard, 1995


C. Manski and I. Garfinkel (editors), Evaluating Welfare and Training Programs, Harvard, 1992


C. Manski, Analog Estimation Methods in Econometrics, Chapman & Hall, 1988

(out-of-print book can be downloaded for private use)


C. Manski and D. Wise College Choice in America, Harvard, 1983


C. Manski and D. McFadden (editors), Structural Analysis of Discrete Data with Econometric Applications, MIT Press, 1981 (out-of-print book can be downloaded for private use)


Samuil Manski, With God’s Help, 1990 (book can be downloaded for private use)





Economics 480-1, Introduction to Econometrics, Fall 2018 (first-year Ph.D. course), past examinations


Economics 483, Cross-sectional Methods, Fall 2018, (Ph.D. field course)

Topic: Medical Decision Making under Uncertainty



The Survey of Economic Expectations


SEE Introduction


SEE Data and Codebooks