Research




	Google Scholar Working Papers Ricardian Non-Equivalence, with Joao Guerreiro and Jana Obradovic. January 2026. Banks and the State-Dependent Effects of Monetary Policy, with Federico Puglisi, Mathias Trabandt, and Sergio Rebelo. August 2025. Video discussion of the paper Slow Learning, with Lawrence Christiano and Ben K. Johannsen. Revise & Resubmit, Review of Economic Studies, Jan. 2025. Does the New Keynesian Model Have an Existence Problem?, with Lawrence Christiano and Benjamin Johannsen. May 2018. Published or Forthcoming Papers Substitution Bias and Fixed Weight Price Indices in Time-Dependent Pricing Models, with Lawrence Christiano and Ben K. Johannsen. American Economic Review: Insights, March 2026. Practical Stabilization Policy in the 21st Century, AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2025. Video of the session at the AEA meetings Expectations, Infections, and Economic Activity, with Miguel Godinho de Matos, Francisco Lima, Sergio Rebelo, and Mathias Trabandt. Journal of Political Economy, August 2024. Technical appendix • MATLAB codes, model part • Slides This paper replaces the paper titled “How do People Respond to Small Probability Events with Large, Negative Consequences?” Fiscal Stimulus with Imperfect Expectations: Spending vs. Tax Policy, with Joao Guerreiro and Riccardo Bianchi-Vimercati. Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 217, April 2024. On the limits of rational expectations for policy analysis, Canadian Journal of Economics, November 2023. Inequality in Life and Death, with Sergio Rebelo and Mathias Trabandt. IMF Economic Review, Vol. 70, March 2022, pp. 68–104. Slides • Non-technical summary (KelloggInsight) • STATA codes, empirical part • MATLAB/DYNARE codes, model part Epidemics in the New Keynesian Model, with Sergio Rebelo and Mathias Trabandt. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 140, July 2022, 104334. Slides • VOXEU column • STATA codes, empirical part • MATLAB/DYNARE codes, model part A previous version of the paper was titled “Epidemics in the Neoclassical and New Keynesian Models”.* The Macroeconomics of Testing and Quarantining, with Sergio Rebelo and Mathias Trabandt. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 138, May 2022. Slides • Non-technical summary (KelloggInsight) • VOXEU column • MATLAB/DYNARE codes State Dependent Effects of Monetary Policy: The Refinancing Channel , with Sergio Rebelo and Arlene Wong. American Economic Review, Vol. 112, No. 3, March 2022, pp. 721–761. VOXEU column • Paris School of Economics Seminar The Macroeconomics of Epidemics, with Sergio Rebelo and Mathias Trabandt. The Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 34, Issue 11, November 2021, pp. 5149–5187. Slides • Non-technical summary (KelloggInsight) • VOXEU column • MATLAB codes • ECB seminar Why is Unemployment so Countercyclical?, with Lawrence Christiano and Mathias Trabandt. Review of Economic Dynamics, Vol. 41, July 2021, pp. 4–37. Technical Appendix • Slides • MATLAB/DYNARE codes Monetary Policy and the Predictability of Nominal Exchange Rates, with Ben Johannsen and Sergio Rebelo. Review of Economic Studies, Volume 88, Issue 1, January 2021, pp. 192–228. On DSGE Models, with Lawrence Christiano and Mathias Trabandt. Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 32, No. 3, Summer 2018, pp. 113–140. Link to presentation at Nobel Symposium, Swedish House of Finance Understanding Booms and Busts in Housing Prices, with Craig Burnside and Sergio Rebelo. Journal of Political Economy, August 2016, Vol. 124, pp. 1088–1147. Valuation Risk and Asset Pricing, with Rui Albuquerque, Victor Xi Luo, and Sergio Rebelo. Journal of Finance, Dec. 2016, Vol. 71, pp. 2861–2904. Link to presentation at Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finances Unemployment and Business Cycles, with Lawrence Christiano and Mathias Trabandt. Econometrica, July 2016, 84(4), pp. 1523–1569. Technical appendix • MATLAB codes • Slides Understanding the Great Recession, with Lawrence Christiano and Mathias Trabandt. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 7(1), January 2015, pp. 110–167. 2017 AEJ: Macro Best Paper Award • Technical appendix • MATLAB codes • Data • Slides • Drexel talk Long Run Bulls and Bears, with Rui Albuquerque, Dimitris Papanikolaou, and Sergio Rebelo. Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 76, December 2015, S21–S36. How Frequent Are Small Price Changes?, with Nir Jaimovich, Sergio Rebelo, and Josephine Smith. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, April 2014, pp. 137–155. Carry Trade and Momentum in Currency Markets, with Craig Burnside and Sergio Rebelo. Annual Review of Financial Economics, Vol. 3 (2011), pp. 511–535. When is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?, with Lawrence Christiano and Sergio Rebelo. Journal of Political Economy, February 2011, Vol. 119, No. 2. Reference Prices and Nominal Rigidities, with Nir Jaimovich and Sergio Rebelo. American Economic Review, February 2011, Vol. 101, Issue 1, pp. 242–272. Data Appendix Firm-Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities and the Business Cycle, with Dave Altig, Lawrence Christiano, and Jesper Lindé. Review of Economic Dynamics, Volume 14, Issue 2, April 2011, pp. 225–247. Technical Appendix, Data and Computer Code Can Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade?, with Craig Burnside, Isaac Kleshchelski, and Sergio Rebelo. Review of Financial Studies, 24(3), 2011, pp. 853–891. Understanding the Forward Premium Puzzle: A Microstructure Approach, with Craig Burnside and Sergio Rebelo. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 1(2), 2009, pp. 127–154. The Returns to Currency Speculation in Emerging Markets, with Craig Burnside and Sergio Rebelo. American Economic Review, Vol. 97, No. 2, May 2007, pp. 333–338. Assessing Structural VARs, with Lawrence Christiano and Robert Vigfusson. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2006, Volume 21. How Important Are Nontradable Goods Prices as Sources of Cyclical Fluctuations in Real Exchange Rates?, with Ariel Burstein and Sergio Rebelo. Japan and the World Economy, Volume 18, Issue 3, August 2006, pp. 247–253. Modeling Exchange Rate Passthrough After Large Devaluations, with Ariel Burstein and Sergio Rebelo. Journal of Monetary Economics, 54(2), March 2007, pp. 346–368. Government Finance in the Wake of a Currency Crisis, with Craig Burnside and Sergio Rebelo. Journal of Monetary Economics, 53(3), April 2006. Technical Appendix Large Devaluations and the Real Exchange Rate, with Ariel Burstein and Sergio Rebelo. Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 113, No. 4, August 2005, pp. 742-784. Data and Replication Materials Fiscal Policy in the Aftermath of 9/11, with Jonas Fisher. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, April 2005, 37(1), pp. 1–22. Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy, with Lawrence Christiano and Charles Evans. Journal of Political Economy, February 2005, 113(1), pp. 1–45. The Response of Hours to a Technology Shock: Evidence Based on Direct Measures of Technology, with Lawrence Christiano and Robert Vigfusson. Journal of the European Economic Association, 2 (May 2004), pp. 381–395. Testing the Calvo Model of Sticky Prices, with Jonas Fisher. Economic Perspectives, 2003:2, pp. 40–53. Government Guarantees and Self-Fulfilling Speculative Attack, with Craig Burnside and Sergio Rebelo. Journal of Economic Theory, 119(1), 2004, pp. 31–63. Technical Appendix Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crises, with Craig Burnside and Sergio Rebelo. Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 109, No. 6, December 2001, pp. 1155–1197. Hedging and Financial Fragility in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes, with Craig Burnside and Sergio Rebelo. European Economic Review, 45(7) (2001), pp. 1151–1193. Understanding the Korean and Thai currency crises, with Craig Burnside and Sergio Rebelo. Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, September 2000, pp. 45–60. Understanding the Effects of a Shock to Government Purchases, with Wendy Edelberg and Jonas Fisher. Review of Economic Dynamics, 2(1), January 1999, pp. 166–206. Expectation Traps and Discretion, with V.V. Chari and Lawrence Christiano. Journal of Economic Theory, 81(2), August 1998, pp. 462–492. Sticky Price and Limited Participation Models of Money: A Comparison, with Lawrence Christiano and Charles Evans. European Economic Review, 41(6), June 1997, pp. 1201–1249. Liquidity Effects and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism, with Lawrence Christiano. American Economic Review, 82(2), May 1992, pp. 346–353. Real Business Cycle Theory: Wisdom or Whimsy?, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 15(4), October 1991, pp. 607–626. Lectures & Comments Israel’s Prospects in the Post-Covid Era, with Federico Puglisi. June 2022. The Don Patinkin Lecture July 2020. Hebrew Version Rethinking Fiscal Policy In an Era of Low Interest Rates March 2019. Link to presentation at 40th Barcelona Lecture Talk at G7 Meeting on Unconventional Fiscal Policy Montebello, Quebec, February 2018. Lessons from the Zero Lower Bound (Comment) July 2017. Discussion of “Quantifying the Lasting Harm to the U.S. from the Financial Crisis”, by Robert E. Hall August 2014. Notes on Linear Approximations, Equilibrium Multiplicity and E-learnability in the Analysis of the Zero Lower Bound, with Lawrence Christiano. March 2012. Comment on “Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing” (Fuster, Hebert, and Laibson) What Lessons Emerged From the Recent Crisis for Macroeconomics Researchers? ECB panel comments.

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