Charles F. Manski

Curriculum Vitae

Short Biography

Further information at

Autobiographical Reflections: Unlearning and Discovery, ET Interview with E. Tamer, Interview with S. Bowmaker, Interview with P. Barrieu



Recently Published and Forthcoming Articles


Using Measures of Race to Make Clinical Predictions: Decision Making, Patient Health, and Fairness, with J. Mullahy and A. Venkataramani, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences


Partial Identification of Personalized Treatment Response with Trial-reported Analyses of Binary Subgroups, with S. Li and V. Litvin, Epidemiology


Probabilistic Prediction for Binary Treatment Choice: with focus on personalized medicine, Journal of Econometrics


Statistical Decision Theory Respecting Stochastic Dominance, with A. Tetenov, Japanese Economic Review


Inference with Imputed Data: The Allure of Making Stuff Up, Journal of Labor Economics, forthcoming




Working Papers


 Comprehensive OOS Evaluation of Predictive Algorithms with Statistical Decision Theory, with J. Dominitz


Optimal Paternalism in a Population with Bounded Rationality, with E. Sheshinski


Using Limited Trial Evidence to Choose Treatment Dosage when Efficacy and Toxicity Weakly Increase with Dose


Identification and Statistical Decision Theory



Links to Books


C. Manski, Patient Care under Uncertainty, Princeton University Press, 2019.


C. Manski, Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions, Harvard University Press, 2013


Link to video recording of public lecture on the book at the British Academy in March 2013, with discussion by Lord Gus O’Donnell


Link to video recording of Sargan Lecture to economists on themes of the book at the Royal Economic Society meeting in April 2013


Link to video recording of Cemmap Masterclass on themes of the book in March 2013  (six 90-minute lectures)


Link to video recording of interview at HEC Paris in May 2017


C. Manski, Identification for Prediction and Decision, Harvard University Press, 2007


C. Manski, Social Choice with Partial Knowledge of Treatment Response, Princeton University Press, 2005.


C. Manski, Partial Identification of Probability Distributions, Springer-Verlag, 2003


C. Manski, J. Pepper, and C. Petrie (editors), Informing America's Policy on Illegal Drugs: What We Don't Know Keeps Hurting Us, National Academy Press, 2001 (book can be read online)


B. Fischhoff and C. Manski (editors), Elicitation of Preferences, Kluwer, 2000


C. Manski, Identification Problems in the Social Sciences, Harvard, 1995


C. Manski and I. Garfinkel (editors), Evaluating Welfare and Training Programs, Harvard, 1992


C. Manski, Analog Estimation Methods in Econometrics, Chapman & Hall, 1988

(out-of-print book can be downloaded for private use)


C. Manski and D. Wise College Choice in America, Harvard, 1983


C. Manski and D. McFadden (editors), Structural Analysis of Discrete Data with Econometric Applications, MIT Press, 1981 (out-of-print book can be downloaded for private use)


Samuil Manski, With God’s Help, 1990 (book can be downloaded for private use)




Economics 483, Introduction to Econometrics, Winter 2024 (Ph.D. field course)


Economics 336, Analytical Methods for Public Policy, Winter 2024 (undergraduate elective course)



The Survey of Economic Expectations


SEE Introduction,  SEE Data and Codebooks

ICPSR Data and Documentation



STATEMENT TO RESTORE SCIENCE-BASED POLICY IN GOVERNMENT, By Concerned Members of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, April 2018

Link to NAS Open Letter History statement, July 2020