Slow Learning, with Lawrence Christiano and Ben K. Johansen, April 2024.

 

Expectations, Infections, and Economic Activity* with Miguel Godinho de Matos, Francisco Lima, Sergio Rebelo and Mathias Trabandt, Forthcoming,  Journal of Political Economy

 

§ Technical appendix

§ MATLAB codes, model part (zip file might not preview; click 'Download' when prompted)

§ Slides

*This paper replaces the paper titled ''How do People Respond to Small Probability Events with Large, Negative Consequences?''

 

Fiscal Stimulus with Imperfect Expectations:  Spending vs. Tax Policy, with and Riccardo Bianchi-Vimercati, forthcoming, Journal of Economic Theory.


On the limits of rational expectations for policy analysis, Canadian Journal of Economics, November 2023. 

Inequality in Life and Death (with Sergio Rebelo and Mathias Trabandt)

IMF Economic Review, March 2022, 70, pp. 68-104 (2022)

§  Slides

§  Non-technical summary (KellogInsight)

§  STATA codes, empirical part (zip file might not preview; click 'Download' when prompted)

§  MATLAB/DYNARE codes, model part (zip file might not preview; click 'Download' when prompted)

Israel’s Prospects in the Post-Covid Era, (June 2022) joint with Federico Puglisi.


Epidemics in the New Keynesian Model
* with Sergio Rebelo and Mathias Trabandt

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 140, July 2022, 104334, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2022.104334

§  Slides

§  VOXEU column

§  STATA codes, empirical part (zip file might not preview; click 'Download' when prompted)

§  MATLAB/DYNARE codes, model part (zip file might not preview; click 'Download' when prompted)

*A previous version of the paper was titled ''Epidemics in the Neoclassical and New Keynesian Models''

 

The Macroeconomics of Testing and Quarantining with Sergio Rebelo and Mathias Trabandt

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 138, May 2022, 104337, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2022.104337

§  Slides

§  Non-technical summary (KellogInsight)

§  VOXEU column

§  MATLAB/DYNARE codes (zip file might not preview; click 'Download' when prompted)

§   

State Dependent Effects of Monetary Policy: The Refinancing Channel,   with Sergio Rebelo and Arlene Wong.

American Economic Review, Vol. 112, No. 3, March 2022, pp 721-61.

§  VOXEU column

§  Paris School of Economics Seminar

Fiscal Policy at the Zero Lower Bound without Rational Expectations (August 2021, revised Feb 2023), with Riccardo Bianchi-Vimercati and Joao Guerreiro. Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Economic Theory.

The Macroeconomics of Epidemics with Sergio Rebelo and Mathias Trabandt

The Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 34, Issue 11, November 2021, pp. 5149-5187,

§  Slides

§  Non-technical summary (KellogInsight)

§  VOXEU column

§  MATLAB codes (zip file might not preview; click 'Download' when prompted)

§  ECB Seminar

 

Should We Worry About Deficits When Interest Rates are So Low?, Sept 2021.

 

Why is Unemployment so Countercyclical? with Lawrence Christiano and Mathias Trabandt

Review of Economic Dynamics, Vol. 41, July 2021, pp. 4-37, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2021.04.008

§  Technical Appendix

§  Slides

§  MATLAB/DYNARE codes (zip file might not preview; click 'Download' when prompted)

 

 

The Dan Patinkin Lecture (July, 2020)

§  Hebrew Version

 

Monetary Policy and the Predictability of Nominal Exchange Rates,  (Revised, June 2019 with Ben Johannsen and Sergio Rebelo)

 

Rethinking Fiscal Policy In an Era of Low Interest Rates  (March 2019)

Link to presentation at 40th Barcelona Lecture

 

On DSGE Models, with Lawrence Christiano and Mathias Trabandt

Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 32, No. 3, Summer 2018, pp. 113-140, https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.32.3.113

§  MATLAB codes (zip file might not preview; click 'Download' when prompted)

§   Link to presentation at Nobel Symposium, Swedish House of Finance

 

Does the New Keynesian Model Have an Existence Problem? (May, 2018 with Lawrence Christiano and Benjamin Johannsen)

 

Talk at G7 Meeting on Unconventional Fiscal Policy (Montebello, Quebec, Feb  7, 2018)

 

Lessons from the Zero Lower Bound, Comment  (July 2017)

 

Unemployment and Business Cycles with Lawrence Christiano and Mathias Trabandt

Econometrica, July 2016, 84(4), pp. 1523-1569, http://dx.doi.org/10.3982/ECTA11776

§  Technical appendix

§  MATLAB codes (zip file might not preview; click 'Download' when prompted)

§  Slides

 

 

The Portuguese Crisis and the IMF,  (July 2016) with Carlos de Resende and and Sergio Rebelo 

 

Valuation Risk and Asset Pricing, with Rui Albuquerque, and Sergio Rebelo.

Journal of Finance, Dec. 2016, Vol. 71, pp. 2861 – 2904.  

§  Link to presentation at  Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finances

 

Long Run Bulls and Bears, with Rui Albuquerque, Dimitris Papanikolaou, and Sergio Rebelo

Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 76, December 2015, S21-S36.

 

Understanding Booms and Busts in Housing Prices  with Craig Burnside and Sergio Rebelo.

Journal of Political Economy, August 2016, Vol. 124, pp. 1088-1147.

 

Understanding the Great Recession* with Lawrence Christiano and Mathias Trabandt

American Economic

Journal: Macroeconomics, 7(1), January 2015, pp. 110-167, 

§ Technical appendix

§ MATLAB codes (zip file might not preview; click 'Download' when prompted)

§ Data

§ Slides

*2017 Best Paper Award American Economic Journal:

Macroeconomics. Papers published in the preceding three years are eligible for

the award. https://www.aeaweb.org/news/2017-aej-best-papers

§  https://www.aeaweb.org/about-aea/honors-awards/aej-best-papers

§  Link to presentation at Drexel University School of Economics

 

Discussion, (August 2014), `Quantifying the Lasting Harm to the U.S. from the Financial Crisis’, by Robert E. Hall.

 

How Frequent Are Small Price Changes?, with Nir Jaimovich, Sergio Rebelo and Josephine Smith.

American Economic Journal – Macro, April, 2014, 137-155.

 

 

Notes on Linear Approximations, Equilibrium Multiplicity and E-learnability in the Analysis of the Zero Lower Bound, (March 2012 with Lawrence Christiano).

 

 

Carry Trade and Momentum in Currency Markets, (April 2011, with Craig Burnside and Sergio Rebelo).

 

Comment on “Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing'' by Fuster, Andreas, Benjamin Hebert, and David Laibson.

 

What Lessons Emerged From the Recent Crisis for Macroeconomics Researchers, comments from an ECB Panel.

 

When is the Government Spending Multiplier Large? (August 2010), joint with Larry Christiano and Sergio Rebelo.

 

Reference Prices and Nominal Rigidities (Revised August 2009), joint with Nir Jaimovich and Sergio Rebelo. Data Appendix.

 

Firm -Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities and the Business Cycle, (Revised, Sept. 2009) joint with Dave Altig, Lawrence Christiano and Jesper Linde.

         Technical Appendix, Data and Computer Code for Firm-Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities and the Business Cycle.

 

Can Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade? (May 2008, joint with Craig Burnside, Isaac Kleshcelski and Sergio Rebelo).

 

Understanding the Forward Premium Puzzle: A Microstructure Approach, July 2007, joint with Craig Burnside and Sergio Rebelo.

 

The Returns to Currency Speculation in Emerging Markets (February 2007), joint with Craig Burnside, and Sergio Rebelo.

 

The Returns to Currency Speculation (October 2006, joint with Craig Burnside, Isaac Kleshcelski and Sergio Rebelo)

 

Assessing Structural VARs (March 2006, Joint with Larry Christiano and Rob Vigfusson)

 

How Important Are Nontradable Goods Prices As Sources of Cyclical Fluctuations in Real Exchange Rates? (August 2005, with Ariel Burstein and Sergio Rebelo).

 

Modleing Exchange Rate Passthrough After Large Devaluations (March, 2005, with Ariel Burstein and Sergio Rebelo)

 

Large Devaluations and the Real Exchange Rate (Revised March 2005), joint with Ariel Burstein and Sergio Rebelo

         Data and Replication Materials.

 

Government Finance in the Wake of a Currency Crisis (Revised, April, 2005 with Craig Burnside and Sergio Rebelo). Technical Appendix

 

Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamics Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy, joint with Lawrence Christiano and Charles Evans (2005)

 

Evaluating the Calvo Model of Sticky Prices, joint with Jonas Fisher 05/2004

 

Fiscal Policy in the Aftermath of 9/11, joint with Jonas Fisher, 03/2004

 

The Response of Hours to a Technology Shock: Evidence Based on Direct Measures of Technology, joint with Lawrence Christiano and Robert Vigfusson, 11/2003

 

Currency Crises and Fiscal Sustainability, joint with Craig Burnside and Sergio Rebelo, 07/2003

 

What Happens After a Technology Shock?, joint with Larry Christiano and Robert Vigfusson. 05/2003, revised 08/2004.

 

Fiscal Shocks and Their Consequences, joint with Craig Burnside and Jonas Fisher, 05/2003.

 

Testing the Calvo Model of Sticky Prices, joint with Jonas Fisher, 05/2003

 

Government Guarantees and Self-Fulfilling Speculative Attack (with Craig Burnside and Sergio Rebelo, revised March 2003)

(Technical Appendix)

 

Why Is Inflation So Low After Large Devaluations? (with Ariel Burstein and Sergio Rebelo (May 2002)

 

On the Fiscal Implications of Twin Crises, joint with Craig Burnside and Sergio Rebelo (April 2001)

 

Hedging and Financial Fragility in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes, joint with Craig Burnside and Sergio Rebelo

 

Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crises, joint with Craig Burnside and Sergio Rebelo.

 

Understanding the Korean and Thai currency crises, joint with Craig Burnside and Sergio Rebelo

 

Fiscal Shocks in an Efficiency Wage Model, joint with Craig Burnside and Jonas Fisher

 

Understanding the Effects of a Shock to Government Purchases, joint with Wendy Edelberg and Jonas Fisher.

 

Some Thoughts on Practical Stabilization Policy.

 

Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End? joint with Lawrence Christiano and Charles Evans.

 

Modeling Money, joint with Lawrence Christiano and Charlie Evans

 

Expectation Traps and Discretion, joint with V.V. Chari and Lawrence Christiano.

 

Sticky Price and Limited Participation Models of Money: A Comparison, joint with Lawrence Christiano and Charles Evans

 

Liquidity Effects and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism, with Larry Christiano

 

Real Business Cycle Theory: Wisdom or Whimsy?