Substitution
Bias and Fixed Weight Price Indices in Time-Dependent Pricing Models, with Lawrence Christiano and Ben
K. Johansen, March 2025
(older version had the title `Measured Inflation and the New_Keynesian Model’.)
Banks and the State-Dependent Effects of Monetary Policy, with Federico Puglisi, Mathias Trabandt and Sergio Rebelo, Feb. 2025.
Slow Learning, with Lawrence Christiano and Ben K. Johansen, Jan. 2025.
Practical Stabilization Policy in the 21st Century, forthcoming, AEA, Papers and Proceedings.
Video of the session at the AEA meetings
Expectations, Infections, and Economic Activity* with Miguel Godinho de Matos, Francisco Lima, Sergio Rebelo and Mathias Trabandt, Link to Journal of Political Economy ahead-of-print version.
§ MATLAB codes, model part (zip file might not preview; click 'Download' when prompted)
§ Slides
*This paper replaces the paper titled ''How do People Respond to Small Probability Events with Large, Negative Consequences?''
Fiscal Stimulus with Imperfect Expectations: Spending vs. Tax Policy, with Joao Guerreiro and Riccardo Bianchi-Vimercati, Journal of Economic Theory, Volume 217, April 2024.
On the limits of rational expectations for policy analysis, Canadian Journal of Economics, November 2023.
Inequality in Life and Death (with Sergio Rebelo and Mathias Trabandt)
IMF Economic Review, March 2022, 70, pp. 68-104 (2022)
§ Slides
§ Non-technical summary (KellogInsight)
§ STATA codes, empirical part (zip file might not preview; click 'Download' when prompted)
§ MATLAB/DYNARE codes, model part (zip file might not preview; click 'Download' when prompted)
Israel’s Prospects in the Post-Covid Era, (June 2022) joint with Federico Puglisi.
Epidemics in the New Keynesian Model* with Sergio Rebelo and Mathias Trabandt
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 140, July 2022, 104334, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2022.104334
§ Slides
§ STATA codes, empirical part (zip file might not preview; click 'Download' when prompted)
§ MATLAB/DYNARE codes, model part (zip file might not preview; click 'Download' when prompted)
*A previous version of the paper was titled ''Epidemics in the Neoclassical and New Keynesian Models''
The Macroeconomics of Testing and Quarantining with Sergio Rebelo and Mathias Trabandt
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 138, May 2022, 104337, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2022.104337
§ Slides
§ Non-technical summary (KellogInsight)
§ MATLAB/DYNARE codes (zip file might not preview; click 'Download' when prompted)
§
State Dependent Effects of Monetary Policy: The Refinancing Channel, with Sergio Rebelo and Arlene Wong.
American Economic Review, Vol. 112, No. 3, March 2022, pp 721-61.
§ Paris School of Economics Seminar
Fiscal Policy at the Zero Lower Bound without Rational Expectations (August 2021, revised Feb 2023), with Riccardo Bianchi-Vimercati and Joao Guerreiro. Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Economic Theory.
The Macroeconomics of Epidemics with Sergio Rebelo and Mathias Trabandt
The Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 34, Issue 11, November 2021, pp. 5149-5187,
§ Slides
§ Non-technical summary (KellogInsight)
§ MATLAB codes (zip file might not preview; click 'Download' when prompted)
Should We Worry About Deficits When Interest Rates are So Low?, Sept 2021.
Why is Unemployment so Countercyclical? with Lawrence Christiano and Mathias Trabandt
Review of Economic Dynamics, Vol. 41, July 2021, pp. 4-37, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2021.04.008
§ Slides
§ MATLAB/DYNARE codes (zip file might not preview; click 'Download' when prompted)
The Dan Patinkin Lecture (July, 2020)
Monetary Policy and the Predictability of Nominal Exchange Rates, (Revised, June 2019 with Ben Johannsen and Sergio Rebelo)
Rethinking Fiscal Policy In an Era of Low Interest Rates (March 2019)
Link to presentation at 40th Barcelona Lecture
On DSGE Models, with Lawrence Christiano and Mathias Trabandt
Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 32, No. 3, Summer 2018, pp. 113-140, https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.32.3.113
§ MATLAB codes (zip file might not preview; click 'Download' when prompted)
§ Link to presentation at Nobel Symposium, Swedish House of Finance
Does the New Keynesian Model Have an Existence Problem? (May, 2018 with Lawrence Christiano and Benjamin Johannsen)
Talk at G7 Meeting on Unconventional Fiscal Policy (Montebello, Quebec, Feb 7, 2018)
Lessons from the Zero Lower Bound, Comment (July 2017)
Unemployment and Business Cycles with Lawrence Christiano and Mathias Trabandt
Econometrica, July 2016, 84(4), pp. 1523-1569, http://dx.doi.org/10.3982/ECTA11776
§ MATLAB codes (zip file might not preview; click 'Download' when prompted)
§ Slides
The Portuguese Crisis and the IMF, (July 2016) with Carlos de Resende and and Sergio Rebelo
Valuation Risk and Asset Pricing, with Rui Albuquerque, and Sergio Rebelo.
Journal of Finance, Dec. 2016, Vol. 71, pp. 2861 – 2904.
§ Link to presentation at Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finances
Long Run Bulls and Bears, with Rui Albuquerque, Dimitris Papanikolaou, and Sergio Rebelo
Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 76, December 2015, S21-S36.
Journal of Political Economy, August 2016, Vol. 124, pp. 1088-1147.
Understanding the Great Recession* with Lawrence Christiano and Mathias Trabandt
American Economic
Journal: Macroeconomics, 7(1), January 2015, pp. 110-167,
§ MATLAB codes (zip file might not preview; click 'Download' when prompted)
§ Data
§ Slides
*2017 Best Paper Award American Economic Journal:
Macroeconomics. Papers published in the preceding three years are eligible for
the award. https://www.aeaweb.org/news/2017-aej-best-papers
§ https://www.aeaweb.org/about-aea/honors-awards/aej-best-papers
§ Link to presentation at Drexel University School of Economics
Discussion, (August 2014), `Quantifying the Lasting Harm to the U.S. from the Financial Crisis’, by Robert E. Hall.
How Frequent Are Small Price Changes?, with Nir Jaimovich, Sergio Rebelo and Josephine Smith.
American Economic Journal – Macro, April, 2014, 137-155.
Notes on Linear Approximations, Equilibrium Multiplicity and E-learnability in the Analysis of the Zero Lower Bound, (March 2012 with Lawrence Christiano).
Carry Trade and Momentum in Currency Markets, (April 2011, with Craig Burnside and Sergio Rebelo).
What Lessons Emerged From the Recent Crisis for Macroeconomics Researchers, comments from an ECB Panel.
When is the Government Spending Multiplier Large? (August 2010), joint with Larry Christiano and Sergio Rebelo.
Reference Prices and Nominal Rigidities (Revised August 2009), joint with Nir Jaimovich and Sergio Rebelo. Data Appendix.
Firm -Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities and the Business Cycle, (Revised, Sept. 2009) joint with Dave Altig, Lawrence Christiano and Jesper Linde.
Can Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade? (May 2008, joint with Craig Burnside, Isaac Kleshcelski and Sergio Rebelo).
Understanding the Forward Premium Puzzle: A Microstructure Approach, July 2007, joint with Craig Burnside and Sergio Rebelo.
The Returns to Currency Speculation in Emerging Markets (February 2007), joint with Craig Burnside, and Sergio Rebelo.
The Returns to Currency Speculation (October 2006, joint with Craig Burnside, Isaac Kleshcelski and Sergio Rebelo)
Assessing Structural VARs (March 2006, Joint with Larry Christiano and Rob Vigfusson)
How Important Are Nontradable Goods Prices As Sources of Cyclical Fluctuations in Real Exchange Rates? (August 2005, with Ariel Burstein and Sergio Rebelo).
Modleing Exchange Rate Passthrough After Large Devaluations (March, 2005, with Ariel Burstein and Sergio Rebelo)
Data and Replication Materials.
Government Finance in the Wake of a Currency Crisis (Revised, April, 2005 with Craig Burnside and Sergio Rebelo). Technical Appendix
Evaluating the Calvo Model of Sticky Prices, joint with Jonas Fisher 05/2004
Fiscal Policy in the Aftermath of 9/11, joint with Jonas Fisher, 03/2004
Currency Crises and Fiscal Sustainability, joint with Craig Burnside and Sergio Rebelo, 07/2003
Fiscal Shocks and Their Consequences, joint with Craig Burnside and Jonas Fisher, 05/2003.
Testing the Calvo Model of Sticky Prices, joint with Jonas Fisher, 05/2003
Why Is Inflation So Low After Large Devaluations? (with Ariel Burstein and Sergio Rebelo (May 2002)
On the Fiscal Implications of Twin Crises, joint with Craig Burnside and Sergio Rebelo (April 2001)
Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crises, joint with Craig Burnside and Sergio Rebelo.
Understanding the Korean and Thai currency crises, joint with Craig Burnside and Sergio Rebelo
Fiscal Shocks in an Efficiency Wage Model, joint with Craig Burnside and Jonas Fisher
Some Thoughts on Practical Stabilization Policy.
Modeling Money, joint with Lawrence Christiano and Charlie Evans
Expectation Traps and Discretion, joint with V.V. Chari and Lawrence Christiano.
Liquidity Effects and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism, with Larry Christiano
Real Business Cycle Theory: Wisdom or Whimsy?