Charles F. Manski

Curriculum Vitae

Short Biography

Further information at

Autobiographical Reflections: Unlearning and Discovery, ET Interview




Forthcoming Articles


Econometrics for Decision Making: Building Foundations Sketched by Haavelmo and Wald, Econometrica



Working Papers


Probabilistic Prediction for Binary Treatment Choice: with focus on personalized medicine


Vaccination Planning under Uncertainty, with Application To Covid-19.


Misguided Use of Observed Covariates to Impute Missing Covariates in Conditional Prediction: A Shrinkage Problem, with M. Gmeiner and A. Tambur


The Quantile Performance of Statistical Treatment Rules Using Hypothesis Tests to Allocate a Population to Two Treatments, with Aleksey Tetenov



Links to Books


C. Manski, Patient Care under Uncertainty, Princeton University Press, 2019.


C. Manski, Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions, Harvard University Press, 2013


Link to video recording of public lecture on the book at the British Academy in March 2013, with discussion by Lord Gus O’Donnell


Link to video recording of Sargan Lecture to economists on themes of the book at the Royal Economic Society meeting in April 2013


Link to video recording of Cemmap Masterclass on themes of the book in March 2013  (six 90-minute lectures)


Link to video recording of interview at HEC Paris in May 2017


C. Manski, Identification for Prediction and Decision, Harvard University Press, 2007


C. Manski, Social Choice with Partial Knowledge of Treatment Response, Princeton University Press, 2005.


C. Manski, Partial Identification of Probability Distributions, Springer-Verlag, 2003


C. Manski, J. Pepper, and C. Petrie (editors), Informing America's Policy on Illegal Drugs: What We Don't Know Keeps Hurting Us, National Academy Press, 2001 (book can be read online)


B. Fischhoff and C. Manski (editors), Elicitation of Preferences, Kluwer, 2000


C. Manski, Identification Problems in the Social Sciences, Harvard, 1995


C. Manski and I. Garfinkel (editors), Evaluating Welfare and Training Programs, Harvard, 1992


C. Manski, Analog Estimation Methods in Econometrics, Chapman & Hall, 1988

(out-of-print book can be downloaded for private use)


C. Manski and D. Wise College Choice in America, Harvard, 1983


C. Manski and D. McFadden (editors), Structural Analysis of Discrete Data with Econometric Applications, MIT Press, 1981 (out-of-print book can be downloaded for private use)


Samuil Manski, With God’s Help, 1990 (book can be downloaded for private use)




Economics 480-1, Introduction to Econometrics, Fall 2021 (first-year Ph.D. course), past examinations


Economics 336, Analytical Methods for Public Policy, Fall 2021 (undergraduate elective course)



The Survey of Economic Expectations


SEE Introduction,  SEE Data and Codebooks

ICPSR Data and Documentation



STATEMENT TO RESTORE SCIENCE-BASED POLICY IN GOVERNMENT, By Concerned Members of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, April 2018

Link to NAS Open Letter History statement, July 2020