Charles F. Manski

Curriculum Vitae

Short Biography

Further information at

Autobiographical Reflections: Unlearning and Discovery, ET Interview



COVID-19 Articles


COVID-19 Policy Must Take All Impacts into Account, Scientific American, March 28, 2020


Estimating the COVID-19 Infection Rate: Anatomy of an Inference Problem, with Francesca Molinari, Journal of Econometrics, 2021


Adaptive Diversification of COVID-19 Policy, VoxEU, June 12, 2020


Bounding the Accuracy of Diagnostic Tests, with Application to COVID-19 Antibody Tests, Epidemiology, 2021


Statistical Decision Properties of Imprecise Trials Assessing COVID-19 Drugs, with Aleksey Tetenov, Value in Health, 2021.


Coping with COVID Uncertainties, presented at the 3rd IESR-GLO Joint Conference, June 2020 text, video


Forming COVID-19 Policy under Uncertainty, Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, 2020


Vaccination Planning under Uncertainty, with Application To Covid-19.



Forthcoming Articles


Addressing Partial Identification in Climate Modeling and Policy Analysis, with Alan Sanstad and Stephen DeCanio, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.


Minimax-Regret Sample Design in Anticipation of Missing Data, with Application to Panel Data, with Jeff Dominitz, Journal of Econometrics


Tail and Center Rounding of Probabilistic Expectations in the Health and Retirement Study, with Pamela Giustinelli and Francesca Molinari, Journal of Econometrics


Precise or Imprecise Probabilities? Evidence from survey response on late-onset dementia, with Pamela Giustinelli and Francesca Molinari, Journal of the European Economic Association



Public Statements on Science in the Federal Government


Policy Analysis in a Post-Truth World, VOX, December 24, 2016


Trump Administration’s Attacks on Science Are Taking a Grim Toll, with B. Santer and R. Weymann, The Mercury News, January 3, 2018


Speaking Science to Power, with B. Santer and R. Weymann, Scientific American, April 23, 2018


STATEMENT TO RESTORE SCIENCE-BASED POLICY IN GOVERNMENT, By Concerned Members of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, April 2018

Link to NAS Open Letter History statement, July 2020


Communicating Uncertainty in Policy Analysis, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2019.   WZB Distinguished Lecture video, 2019


Science and Scientific Expertise are More Important than Ever, with R. Weymann and B. Santer, Scientific American, August 5, 2020.



Working Papers


Misguided Use of Observed Covariates to Impute Missing Covariates in Conditional Prediction: A Shrinkage Problem, with M. Gmeiner and A. Tambur


Econometrics for Decision Making: Building Foundations Sketched by Haavelmo and Wald


The Quantile Performance of Statistical Treatment Rules Using Hypothesis Tests to Allocate a Population to Two Treatments, with Aleksey Tetenov



Links to Books


C. Manski, Patient Care under Uncertainty, Princeton University Press, 2019.


C. Manski, Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions, Harvard University Press, 2013


Link to video recording of public lecture on the book at the British Academy in March 2013, with discussion by Lord Gus O’Donnell


Link to video recording of Sargan Lecture to economists on themes of the book at the Royal Economic Society meeting in April 2013


Link to video recording of Cemmap Masterclass on themes of the book in March 2013  (six 90-minute lectures)


Link to video recording of interview at HEC Paris in May 2017


C. Manski, Identification for Prediction and Decision, Harvard University Press, 2007


C. Manski, Social Choice with Partial Knowledge of Treatment Response, Princeton University Press, 2005.


C. Manski, Partial Identification of Probability Distributions, Springer-Verlag, 2003


C. Manski, J. Pepper, and C. Petrie (editors), Informing America's Policy on Illegal Drugs: What We Don't Know Keeps Hurting Us, National Academy Press, 2001 (book can be read online)


B. Fischhoff and C. Manski (editors), Elicitation of Preferences, Kluwer, 2000


C. Manski, Identification Problems in the Social Sciences, Harvard, 1995


C. Manski and I. Garfinkel (editors), Evaluating Welfare and Training Programs, Harvard, 1992


C. Manski, Analog Estimation Methods in Econometrics, Chapman & Hall, 1988

(out-of-print book can be downloaded for private use)


C. Manski and D. Wise College Choice in America, Harvard, 1983


C. Manski and D. McFadden (editors), Structural Analysis of Discrete Data with Econometric Applications, MIT Press, 1981 (out-of-print book can be downloaded for private use)


Samuil Manski, With God’s Help, 1990 (book can be downloaded for private use)




Economics 480-1, Introduction to Econometrics, Fall 2020 (first-year Ph.D. course), past examinations


Economics 483, Applied Econometrics, Fall 2020 (Ph.D. field course)



The Survey of Economic Expectations


SEE Introduction,  SEE Data and Codebooks

ICPSR Data and Documentation