Lecture Notes.

Background papers:

Altig, Christiano, Eichenbaum and Linde, Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations

 

Outline:

    a. A Shock-Based Estimation Strategy - general idea


    b. Implementation of Strategy: Estimation of Impulse Responses to Shocks, Using VAR's
        i. Confidence Intervals for Impulse Response Functions
        ii. Encompassing
        iii. Limited Information Bayesian Posterior Odds
        iv. Identification using Long-Run Restrictions
        v. Empirical 'Puzzles': Inflation Inertia, Output Persistence, Price Puzzle.


    c. Implementation of Strategy: Fitting a `Standard' General Equilibrim Model To Estimated Shock Responses
        i. Role of Monetary Policy in Determining Economic Response to Technology Shocks.
        ii. Interpretation of `Price Puzzle'
        iii. Resolution of Empirical Puzzles.
        iv. Sticky Prices, wages.
        v. Searching for a Theory of TFP.


    d. A More `Serious' Model: Adding a Banking System and Net Worth Constraints to Investment. The preliminary draft of the paper that is the background for the discussion is available.