Bayesian Inference in IV Regressions
August 2025. This version: December 2025.
Research
Working Papers
Demand-Driven Inflation
August 2025.
The Drivers of Post-Pandemic Inflation
July 2024.
Inequality and Business Cycles
May 2022. This version: June 2024.
Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Time of COVID-19
June 2020.
What's up with the Inflation and the Business Cycle after the COVID-19 Shock?
June 2020.
Intertemporal Disturbances
October 2005. This version: April 2006.
Inequality over the Business Cycle: Estimating Income Risk using Micro-Data on Consumption
July 2002.
Publications
How to Estimate a VAR after March 2020
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 37(4), June/July 2022, pp. 688–699.
The Mortgage Rate Conundrum
Journal of Political Economy, 130(1), January 2022, pp. 121–156.
Economic Predictions with Big Data: The Illusion of Sparsity
Econometrica, 89(5), September 2021, pp. 2409–2437.
What's up with the Phillips Curve?
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2020, pp. 301–357.
Credit Supply and the Housing Boom
Journal of Political Economy, 127(3), June 2019, pp. 1317–1350.
Priors for the Long Run
Journal of the American Statistical Association, 114:526, 2019, pp. 565–580.
Comments on "A Unified Approach to Measuring u*"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2019, pp. 223–230.
A Simple Model of Subprime Borrowers and Credit Growth
American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 106(5), May 2016, pp. 543–547.
Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy: A Corrigendum
The Review of Economic Studies, 82(4), October 2015, pp. 1342–1345.
Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions
Review of Economics and Statistics, 97(2), May 2015, pp. 412–435.
Household Leveraging and Deleveraging
Review of Economic Dynamics, 18(1), January 2015, pp. 3–20.
The Effects of the Saving and Banking Glut on the U.S. Economy
Journal of International Economics, 92, Supplement 1, April 2014, pp. S52–S67.
Comment on "Non-Inflationary Demand Driven Business Cycles," by Beaudry and Portier
NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2013, pp. 131–143.
Is There a Trade-Off Between Inflation and Output Stabilization?
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 5(2), April 2013, pp. 1–31.
Investment Shocks and the Relative Price of Investment
Review of Economic Dynamics, 14(1), January 2011, pp. 101–121.
Learning the Wealth of Nations
Econometrica, 79(1), January 2011, pp. 1–46.
Investment Shocks and Business Cycles
Journal of Monetary Economics, 57(2), March 2010, pp. 132–145.
Measuring the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Perspectives, 34(1), 1st quarter 2010, pp. 14–27.
Inflation-Gap Persistence in the U.S.
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2(1), January 2010, pp. 43–69.
Heterogeneous Life-Cycle Profiles, Income Risk and Consumption Inequality
Journal of Monetary Economics, 56(1), January 2009, pp. 20–39.
The Time Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations
The American Economic Review, 98(3), June 2008, pp. 604–641.
Why Inflation Rose and Fell: Policymakers' Beliefs and US Postwar Stabilization Policy
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 121, August 2006, pp. 867–901.
Comments on "Monetary Policy under Uncertainty," by Levin, Onatski, Williams and Williams
NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, pp. 289–296.
Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy
The Review of Economic Studies, 72, July 2005, pp. 821–852.
Debt Maturity and the Reaction and Performance of Monetary Policy
in Alec Chrystal (ed.) Debt Structure and Monetary Conditions, pp. 103–124, Bank of England and MacMillan Press, 1999.