Working papers

Is There a Trade-Off Between Inflation and Output Stabilization?
     (with Alejandro Justiniano and Andrea Tambalotti), December 2010. This version: January 2012
     This paper is a substantially revised and extended version of an earlier paper titled
     Potential and Natural Output

Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions
      (with Domenico Giannone and Michele Lenza), March 2010. This version: December 2011

Intertemporal Disturbances
    (with Ernst Schaumburg and Andrea Tambalotti), October 2005. This version: April 2006
    Also available as NBER working paper No. 12243

Inequality over the Business Cycle: Estimating Income Risk using Micro-Data on Consumption
     (with Thijs van Rens), July 2002

Publications

Investment Shocks and the Relative Price of Investment
      (with Alejandro Justiniano and Andrea Tambalotti)
      Review of Economic Dynamics, 14(1), January 2011, pp. 101-121.
      Older version available as CEPR discussion paper No. 7597

Learning the Wealth of Nations (with Paco Buera and Alex Monge)
      Econometrica, 79(1), January 2011, pp.1-46.
      Older version available as NBER working paper No. 14595

Investment Shocks and Business Cycles (with Alejandro Justiniano and Andrea Tambalotti)
     Journal of Monetary Economics, 57(2), March 2010, pp. 132-145
     Technical Appendix
     MATLAB code for the model solution
     Older versions available as CEPR discussion paper No. 6739 or NBER working paper No. 15570

Measuring the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate (with Alejandro Justiniano)
      Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Perspectives, 34(1), 1^st quarter 2010, pp. 14-27

Inflation-Gap Persistence in the U.S. (with Timothy Cogley and Thomas J. Sargent)
      American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2(1), January 2010, pp. 43-69
      Technical appendix
      Longer version available as NBER working paper No. 13749

Heterogeneous Life-Cycle Profiles, Income Risk and Consumption Inequality (with Thijs van Rens)
     Journal of Monetary Economics, 56(1), January 2009, pp. 20-39
     Also available as CEPR discussion paper No. 5881

The Time Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations (with Alejandro Justiniano)
      The American Economic Review, 98(3), June 2008, pp. 604-641
      NBER working paper No. 12022 (January 2006 version)

Why Inflation Rose and Fell: Policymakers' Beliefs and US Postwar Stabilization Policy
     The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 121, August 2006, pp. 867-901
     Technical appendix
     Longer version (February 2005)
     NBER working paper No. 11147

Comments on “Monetary Policy under Uncertainty,” by Levin, Onatski, Williams and Williams
     NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, pp. 289-296

Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy
     The Review of Economic Studies, 72, July 2005, pp. 821-852

Debt Maturity and the Reaction and Performance of Monetary Policy
     (with Carlo Favero and Alessandro Missale), in Alec Chrystal (ed.) Debt Structure and Monetary Conditions, 103-124, Bank of England and Mac Millan Press, 1999