Recent Working Papers:

• "The Home Market Effect and Patterns of Trade Between Rich and Poor Countries" Aug 2015 Version; Also available as CFM DP 2015-19; R&R at Econometrica. For the presentation slides, Mar 2016, MIT
• "Globalization and Synchronization of Innovation Cycles" with Laura Gardini and Iryna Sushko. Dec 2014 Version; Also available as CFM DP 2015-27; R&R at Econometrica. For the presentation slides, Feb 2015, Stanford Trade Workshop-90min; Nov 2015, Yale Macro Lunch-60min; July 2016, NBER Summer Institute(International Trade and Macro)-30min.
• "Beyond CES: Three Alternative Classes of Flexible Homothetic Demand Systems" with Philip Ushchev, Oct 2017 Version; Jul 2017 version available as CEPR-DP12210. For the presentation slides, Dec 2017, Tokyo.
• "Reconsidering The Market Size Effect in Innovation and Growth" with Helene Latzer and Mathieu Parenti. July 2020 Version; Dec 2019 version available as CEPR DP14250.
• "When Does Procompetitive Entry Imply Excessive Entry?" with Philip Ushchev. Jan 2021 version; June 2020 version available as CEPR-DP14991. For the latest presentation slides, July 2021, NBER Summer Institute(ITI)-30min.
• "Constant Pass-Through" with Philip Ushchev. Jan 2021 version; Nov 2020 version available as CEPR-DP15475. For the latest presentation slides, June 2021.
• "Selection and Sorting of Heterogeneous Firms through Competitive Pressures" with Philip Ushchev. CEPR-DP17092-3, which generalizes many key results but drops a few minor ones in 2023.07.08 version; For the latest presentation slides, Jan 2026, edited. For detailed teaching slides, Teaching Slides.

• "Love-for-Variety: with an Application to an Armington Model of Competitive Trade" with Philip Ushchev. Journal of International Economics: Special Issue on the International Seminar on Trade, forthcoming. CEPR-DP18184-5. For the latest presentation slides, Sep 2026. For more detailed slides, Teaching Slides.
• "Competition and the Phillips Curve" with Ippei Fujiwara. Journal of Monetary Economics, 159 (2026) 103920. Feb 2026 version contains Online Appendix. For an earlier version, CEPR-DP17521-4. For the presentation slides, Sep 2023, UBC.
• "Homothetic non-CES Demand Systems with Applications to Monopolistic Competition,"Annual Review of Economics, (2025), vol.17, 261-292. For the final draft, which also contains online supplementary materials, CEPR-DP19376-4. For the lecture slides, which also contain the materials omitted from the publication due to the space limitation (including many figures that illustrate results graphically), EUI Lectures Sep 2024, edited.
• "A Technology-Gap Model of 'Premature' Deindustrialization" with Ippei Fujiwara. American Economic Review, 114 (November 2024): 3714-3745. June 2024 Version. For earlier versions, which contain some additional results, CEPR-DP15530-3, and CEPR-DP15530-4. For the latest presentation slides, Nov 2024, Yale, edited. For more detailed slides, Teaching Slides.
• "Non-CES Aggregators: A Guided Tour,"Annual Review of Economics, (2023), vol.15, 235-265. For the lecture slides, Teaching Slides.
• "Destabilizing Effects of Market Size in the Dynamics of Innovation" with Philip Ushchev, Journal of Economic Theory, 200 (2022): 105415. Dec 2021 version. Also available as CEPR-DP15010-2. For the presentation slides, NED2021, Milano(virtual).
• "Engel's Law in the Global Economy: Demand-Induced Patterns of Structural Change, Innovation, and Trade", Econometrica, 87 (March 2019): 497-528. Oct 2018 Version with Supplement. For the presentation slides, Sep 2018, Zurich-Bocconi.
• "Geographical Advantage: Home Market Effect in a Multi-Region World" Research in Economics (formerly Ricerche Economiche), 71 (December 2017): 740-758. Oct 2017 Version; Also available as CEPR-DP12352. For the presentation slides, Nov 2012, Princeton Trade Seminar. This is the updated version of "Geography of the World Economy" Jan 1999 Version, delivered as the Inaugural Fukuzawa Lecture at the 1999 Far Eastern Meeting of the Econometric Society in Singapore.
• "Revisiting the Model of Credit Cycles with Good and Bad Projects" with Iryna Sushko and Laura Gardini, Journal of Economic Theory, 163 (May 2016): 525-556. Feb 2016 Version. For the presentation slides, Dec 2015.
• "Endogenous Ranking and Equilibrium Lorenz Curve Across (ex ante) Identical Countries: A Generalization," Research in Economics (formerly Ricerche Economiche), 68 (June 2014): 95-111. Sep 2013 Version. For the presentation slides, Sep 2013, Vienna
• "Institution-Induced Productivity Differences and Patterns of International Capital Flows," Journal of the European Economic Association, 12 (February 2014): 1-24. Nov 2012 Version. For the presentation slides, Sep 2013, WU Wien
• "Endogenous Ranking and Equilibrium Lorenz Curve Across (ex ante) Identical Countries," Econometrica, 81 (September 2013): 2009-2031. Jan 2013 Version. For the presentation slides, Mar 2013 LUISS-EIEF; See May 2011 Version for the two-country case, more extensive references, and the derivations of the results for the two extensions, which were omitted from the final version. See Footnote 11 of Nov 2012 Version for more discussion of the instability of the symmetric equilibrium.
• "The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly: An Inquiry into the Causes and Nature of Credit Cycles," Theoretical Economics, 8 (September 2013): 623-651. Mar 2012 version (& its Figures). Sep 2001 Version (& its Figures) of this paper, with the title, "Good and Bad Investment: An Inquiry into the Causes of Credit Cycles", discusses some additional cases that are omitted from the final version.
• "Imperfect Credit Markets, Household Wealth Distribution, and Development," Annual Review of Economics. 2011, Volume 3, 339-362. Nov 2010 Version. For the presentation slides, Jan 2011, Keio
• "Structural Change in an Interdependent World: A Global View of Manufacturing Decline," Journal of the European Economic Association. 7 (April-May 2009): 478-486. Nov 2008 Version. For the presentation slides, 2008 EEA Congress, Milano.
• "Aggregate Implications of Credit Market Imperfections," in D. Acemoglu, K. Rogoff, and M. Woodford, eds., NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22. May 2007 Version. For the presentation slides, Apr 2008, Brown & BC. This is a highly condensed version of lecture series I gave at various places. For the most recent slides for these lectures, Part 1; Part 2; Part 3;
• "Ricardian Trade Theory," in L. Blume and S. Durlauf, eds., the New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd Edition, Palgrave Macmillan. Feb 2007 Version
• "A One-Sector Neoclassical Growth Model with Endogenous Retirement," Japanese Economic Review, 59 (June 2008): 139-155. Final Version
• "Credit Traps and Credit Cycles," American Economic Review, 97 (March 2007): 503-516. June 2006 Version; For the presentation slides, 2006 Midwest Macro Meeting, St. Louis
• "Beyond Icebergs: Towards A Theory of Biased Globalization, " The Review of Economic Studies, 74 (January 2007): 237-253. May 2006 Version. For the presentation slides, Oct 2006, Berkeley. Section 6 of Dec 2005 Version has some extensions omitted from the final version.
• "The 2005 Lawrence R. Klein Lecture: Emergent Class Structure," International Economic Review, 47 (May 2006): 327-360. Oct 2005 Version; For the presentation slides, Aug 2005, Osaka
• "Poverty Traps," in L. Blume and S. Durlauf, eds., the New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd Edition, Palgrave Macmillan. May 2005 Version
• "Structural Change," in L. Blume and S. Durlauf, eds., the New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd Edition, Palgrave Macmillan. May 2005 Version
• "Symmetry-Breaking," in L. Blume and S. Durlauf, eds., the New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd Edition, Palgrave Macmillan. May 2005 Version
• "Credit Market Imperfections and Patterns of International Trade and Capital Flows," Journal of the European Economic Association, 3 (April-May 2005): 714-723. Sep 2004 Version; For the presentation slides, 2004 EEA Congress, Madrid
• "Financial Market Globalization, Symmetry-Breaking, and Endogenous Inequality of Nations," Econometrica, 72 (May 2004): 853-884. Oct 2003 Version; April 2001 Version has some extensions (in Section 6), omitted from the final version. For the presentation slides, December 2003, London and Zurich
• "The Rise of Mass Consumption Societies," Journal of Political Economy, 110 (October 2002): 1035-1070. Oct 2001 Version
• "Explaining Diversity: Symmetry-Breaking in Complementarity Games," American Economic Review, 92 (May 2002): 241-246. Jan 2002 Version; For the presentation slides, 2002 AEA Meeting, Atlanta

Publications (before 2001): with the links to some scanned copies of the old working paper versions, which may be very different from the published versions. No presentation slides are available for these papers.

• "Growing Through Cycles in an Infinitely Lived Agent Economy," Journal of Economic Theory, 100 (October 2001): 220-234. Dec 1999 Version
• "A Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods under Nonhomothetic Preferences: Demand Complementarities, Income Distribution and North-South Trade," Journal of Political Economy, 108 (December 2000): 1093-1120. March 1999 Version has some extensions (in Section 4), omitted from the final version.
• "Endogenous Inequality," The Review of Economic Studies, 67 (October 2000): 743-759. Dec 1998 Version has an extension (in Section 4b), omitted from the final version.
• "Efficiency and Equilibrium with Dynamic Increasing Aggregate Returns Due to Demand Complementarities," with Antonio Ciccone, Econometrica, 67 (May 1999): 499-526. Apr 1998 Version
• "Growing Through Cycles," Econometrica, 67 (March 1999): 335-347.Nov 1996 Version
• "Self-Defeating Regional Concentration," with Takaaki Takahashi, The Review of Economic Studies, 65 (April 1998): 211-234. Mar 1994 Version
• "Credibility and Intertemporal Consistency: A Note on Strategic Macroeconomic Policy Models" Macroeconomic Dynamics 1 (1997): 658-665.
• "The 1996 Nakahara Lecture: Complementarity, Instability, and Multiplicity," Japanese Economic Review, 48 (September 1997): 240-266. Mar 1997 Version
• "Why Are There Rich and Poor Countries?: Symmetry-Breaking in the World Economy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 10 (December 1996): 419-439. Aug 1996 Version
• "Economic Development as Coordination Problems," The Role of Government in East Asian Development: Comparative Institutional Analysis, edited by M. Aoki, H. Kim, and M. Okuno-Fujiwara, Oxford University Press, 1996. Apr 1995 Version
• "Start-up Costs and Pecuniary Externalities as Barriers to Economic Development," with Antonio Ciccone, Journal of Development Economics, 49 (April 1996): 33-59. Feb 1993 Version
• "New Goods, Market Formations, and Pitfalls of System Design" Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 9 (December 1995): 376-402. May 1995 Version
• "Complementarities and Cumulative Processes in Models of Monopolistic Competition," Journal of Economic Literature 33 (June 1995): 701-729. Oct 1994 Version
• "An Approach to Equilibrium Selection," with Akihiko Matsui, Journal of Economic Theory 65 (April 1995): 415-434. Sep 1993 Version
• "Comment on Paul Krugman's 'Complexity and Emergent Structure in the International Economy'" in Alan V. Deardorff, James A. Levinsohn, and Robert M. Stern, eds., New Directions in Trade Theory, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1995: pp.52-69. Dec 1993 Version
• "Toward a Theory of International Currency," with Nobuhiro Kiyotaki and Akihiko Matsui, The Review of Economic Studies 60 (April 1993): 283-307.Apr 1991 Version
• "The Market Size,Entrepreneurship, and the Big Push," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 6 (December 1992): 347-364.
• "Agricultural Productivity, Comparative Advantage, and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Theory 58 (December 1992): 317-334. May 1991 Version. Also included in the Special Issue Celebrating the 50th Anniversary of Journal of Economic Theory, 2020.
• "A Simple Model of Sectoral Adjustment," The Review of Economic Studies 59 (April 1992): 375-388. Oct 1988 Version
• "Endogenous Price Fluctuations in an Optimizing Model of a Monetary Economy," Econometrica 59 (November 1991): 1617-1631. Mar 1989 Version
• "Increasing Returns, Industrialization, and Indeterminacy of Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics 106 (May 1991): 617-650. Mar 1990 Version
• "Immiserizing Growth in Diamond's Overlapping Generations Model: A Geometrical Exposition" International Economic Review 32 (February 1991): 251-262. Jul 1987 Version
• "On Exchange Rate Stabilization" Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 15 (January 1991): 7-26.
• "Export Subsides as an Outcome of the Management-Labor Conspiracy" The Quarterly Journal of Economics 105 (August 1990): 803-813.
• "Perfect Equilibria in a Trade Liberalization Game" The American Economic Review 80 (June 1990): 480-492. Jun 1987 Version
• "Residential Investment and the Current Account" Journal of International Economics 28 (February 1990): 137-153. Mathematical Appendix
• "Sunspot Equilibria (Rational Bubbles) in a Model of Money-in-the-Utility-Function" Journal of Monetary Economics 25 (January 1990): 137-144.
• "Life-Cycle Saving and Comparative Advantage in the Long Run," Economics Letters 28 (1988): 375-379.
• "Terms of Trade, Factor Intensities and the Current Account in a Life-Cycle Model," The Review of Economic Studies 55 (April 1988): 247-262.
• "Current Account Dynamics in a Finite Horizon Model" Journal of International Economics 23 (November 1987): 299-313.
• "Chernoff's Dual Axiom, Revealed Preference and Weak Rational Choice Functions" Journal of Economic Theory, 35 (February 1985): 155-165.

Publications in Applied Math Journals: These studies investigate the mathematical properties of my economics models and their extensions. As such, they are written for the applied math audience.

• "1D Piecewise Smooth Map: Exploring a Model of Investment Dynamics under Financial Frictions with Three Types of Investment Projects" with Iryna Sushko and Laura Gardini, Ukrainian Mathematical Journal (Ukrains kyi Matematychnyi Zhurnal), Sharkovsky Memorial Issue (2024, Vol.75, no.12): 1681-96. July 2023 Version.
• "Dynamics of a Generalized Fashion Cycle Model," with Iryna Sushko and Laura Gardini, Chaos, Solitons, and Fractals, 126 (2019): 135-147. March 2019 Version
• "A Piecewise Linear Model of Credit Traps and Credit Cycles: A Complete Characterization" with Laura Gardini and Iryna Sushko, Decisions in Economics and Finance: Special Issue on Stability and Bifurcations in Nonlinear Economic Systems, 41 (November 2018): 119-143. Sep 2018 Version. For the presentation slides, Sep 2012, Urbino (with emphasis on economics behind the model), and/or Sep 2019, Kyiv (with emphasis on mathematics).
• "2D Discontinuous Piecewise Linear Map: Emergence of Fashion Cycles" with Laura Gardini and Iryna Sushko, Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 28, 055917 (2018). Dec 2017 Version. For the presentation slides, Sep 2017, Pisa
• "Coupled Chaotic Fluctuations in a Model of International Trade and Innovation: Some Preliminary Results" with Iryna Sushko and Laura Gardini, Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, 58 (May 2018): 287-302. June 2017 Version. For the presentation slides, Jun 2016, Urbino.
• "Robust Chaos in a Credit Cycle Model defined by a One-Dimensional Piecewise Smooth Map, " with Iryna Sushko and Laura Gardini, Chaos, Solitons, and Fractals, 91 (October 2016): 299-309. Mar 2016 Version
• "Superstable Credit Cycles and U-sequence," with Iryna Sushko and Laura Gardini, Chaos, Solitons, and Fractals, 59 (February 2014): 13-27. Feb 2013 Version

Older Working Papers: with the links to scanned copies

• "Playing Multiple Complementarity Games Simultaneously" Jan 1999 Version
• "Making Monopolistic Competition Model More Useful" Aug 1992 Version
• "Custom versus Fashion: Path-dependence and Limit Cycles in a Random Matching Game." For a scanned copy of this old discussion paper, May 1992 Version; For a recently reformatted version (no change in the content, but the figures are redrawn) "Custom vs Fashion (2017)". For the recent presentation slides, Sep 2017, Pisa.
• "Imperfect Competition, Foreign Trade, and The Multipliers: Machlup-Metzler Fifty Years Later" Jan 1992 Version
• "Protection Policy in a Dynamic Oligopoly Market" with Motoshige Itoh Oct 1987 Version
• "A Learning Effect Model of Investment: An Alternative Interpretation of Tobin's Q" Aug 1984 Version

Work in Progress:

• "Excessive vs. Insufficient Entry: Anatomy of Market Failures in Monopolistic Competition" with Philip Ushchev. Presented at the Hitotsubashi-Gakushuin Conference on International Trade and FDI, Dec 2024. Coming Soon.
• "Destabilizing Effects of Market Size in the Dynamics of Innovation: Judd meets Kimball" with Philip Ushchev. Presented at MDEF, Urbino, Sep 2022. Coming Soon.
• "Destabilizing Effects of Market Size in the Dynamics of Innovation: the Role of per Capita Expenditure" with Philip Ushchev. Presented at MDEF, Urbino, Sep 2024. Coming Soon.
• "Destabilizing Effects of Market Size in the Dynamics of Innovation: the Role of the Population Size" with Philip Ushchev. Presented at MDEF, Urbino, Sep 2024. Coming Soon.
• "Balanced Growth Despite Procompetitive Entry"
• "A Simple Model of Endogenous Credit Cyles Driven By (Almost) Private Benefits"
• "Interdepedent Innovation Cycles" with Iryna Sushko and Laura Gardini. Presented at CREI, Sep 2014.
• "On Three Classes of CRS Multi-Factor Production Functions" with Philip Ushchev. Presented at NYU and Princeton, Nov 2018.
• "Uniform versus Non-Uniform Globalization" For the presentation slides, Sep 2007
• "Knowledge-Diversity in an Endogenous Growth Model" Presented at Keio, Jan 2012.
• "On Some Negative Aspects of IT Revolution" Presented at Toulouse Network on Information Technology, Sep 2005.
• "A Global View of Premature Deindustrialization" with Ippei Fujiwara.
• "Reference Price Gap" with Ippei Fujiwara.
• "Globalization and firm selection with constant pass-through; with GIP Ottaviano.
• "Revisiting the Home Market Effect"
• "Corporate Governance and Patterns of International Trade" with Kripa Freitas.